A Simple Model Predicts Household Lead Exposure Risk

Supply: GeoHealth

Whilst it is a normally transpiring metal, direct can be harmful to individuals, in particular young children. Because 1978, lead has been phased out of a lot of goods in the United States (which include paint and gasoline), but its remnants can however be uncovered in soil, paint in older homes, and domestic dust.

In a new research, Dietrich et al. turned to a crowdsourced science facts established to support forecast the likelihood of guide dust contamination in a household’s indoor setting. The experts used data from DustSafe, an initiative in which individuals done an on line study about their home’s situation and despatched samples of household dust to a lab. Dietrich and colleagues utilised hundreds of samples throughout the United States in this information set, alongside with numerous predictor variables—including the age of the dwelling, the existence of paint peeling on the interior and/or exterior of the house, and no matter whether there was a current house renovation—to notify a simple logistic regression product. The researchers then examined to see regardless of whether the model could predict whether or not a residence experienced very low (<80 parts per million) or high (≥80 parts per million) levels of lead present.

They found that the model was most successful at predicting whether a home had high or low lead dust concentrations (75% accuracy) when it used only two independent variables: housing age and interior peeling paint. Incorporating the two variables, Dietrich and colleagues built a mobile household lead screening app. In addition to providing users with a custom lead risk assessment, the app allows users to register for free dust and soil lead screening.

The researchers hope their predictive model and app can be used as an intervention tool so that residents can make proper lead mitigation efforts if need be. Furthermore, similar modeling efforts and crowdsourced science can be extended to other household contaminants, such as arsenic and radon, the authors say. (GeoHealth, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GH000525, 2022)

—Alexandra Scammell, Associate Editor

Citation: Scammell, A. (2022), A simple model predicts household lead exposure risk, Eos, 103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EO220111. Published on 28 February 2022.

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